Mathematical models of human mobility of relevance to malaria transmission in Africa

Sci Rep. 2018 May 16;8(1):7713. doi: 10.1038/s41598-018-26023-1.

Abstract

As Africa-wide malaria prevalence declines, an understanding of human movement patterns is essential to inform how best to target interventions. We fitted movement models to trip data from surveys conducted at 3-5 sites throughout each of Mali, Burkina Faso, Zambia and Tanzania. Two models were compared in terms of their ability to predict the observed movement patterns - a gravity model, in which movement rates between pairs of locations increase with population size and decrease with distance, and a radiation model, in which travelers are cumulatively "absorbed" as they move outwards from their origin of travel. The gravity model provided a better fit to the data overall and for travel to large populations, while the radiation model provided a better fit for nearby populations. One strength of the data set was that trips could be categorized according to traveler group - namely, women traveling with children in all survey countries and youth workers in Mali. For gravity models fitted to data specific to these groups, youth workers were found to have a higher travel frequency to large population centers, and women traveling with children a lower frequency. These models may help predict the spatial transmission of malaria parasites and inform strategies to control their spread.

Publication types

  • Research Support, N.I.H., Extramural
  • Research Support, Non-U.S. Gov't

MeSH terms

  • Adolescent
  • Adult
  • Africa / epidemiology
  • Child
  • Child, Preschool
  • Female
  • Humans
  • Infant
  • Malaria / epidemiology*
  • Malaria / transmission*
  • Male
  • Models, Theoretical*
  • Prevalence
  • Spatial Analysis
  • Travel / statistics & numerical data*
  • Young Adult