Background: One of the major public health challenges in the field of communicable diseases consists of being able to predict where and when a population is at risk of being infected by a pathogen. In the case of vector-borne diseases, such predictions often require strong ecological knowledge of the vector life-cycle and the environmental conditions promoting or preventing its establishment and maintenance. In this study, we analyse how climatic factors influence the abundance and phenology of the Lyme borreliosis vector Ixodes ricinus in a Swiss temperate forest, based on a long-term monthly observation over a period of 15 years (2000 and 2014).
Results: Our results show that questing nymph density significantly decreased during the study period in the sampling area. Although the analyses of climatic variables point out the relative importance of air temperature, relative humidity and saturation deficit on nymph questing activity, the global trends followed by these variables over the study period failed to fully explain the observed decline. However, nymph phenology was additionally explained by the presence of climatic thresholds that limit the questing behaviours of ticks. Most notably, we found that the presumed upper threshold of air saturation deficit, which strongly limits the increase of questing nymph density and is typically reached in the middle of spring, was reached significantly earlier and earlier over years.
Conclusions: In addition to phenology per se, the use of climatic thresholds may help to predict the presence and abundance of questing ticks in Lyme borreliosis endemic areas. Tick sensitivity to temperature or saturation deficit thresholds also suggests that extreme climatic events more than global trends may affect tick population dynamics. These two points may be of high importance in epidemiological short-term as well as long-term predictions. However, the highly unexplained variability in nymph density underlines the need for further studies that include other factors such as tick host abundance or tick microhabitats, two potentially influent factors that were not assessed in the present study.
Keywords: Climatic factors; Ixodes ricinus; Long-term observation; Phenology; Population density; Ticks.