Stochastic Sensitivity Analysis of Noise-Induced Extinction in the Ricker Model with Delay and Allee Effect

Bull Math Biol. 2018 Jun;80(6):1596-1614. doi: 10.1007/s11538-018-0422-6. Epub 2018 Apr 2.

Abstract

A susceptibility of population systems to the random noise is studied on the base of the conceptual Ricker-type model taking into account the delay and Allee effect. This two-dimensional discrete model exhibits the persistence in the form of equilibria, discrete cycles, closed invariant curves, and chaotic attractors. It is shown how the Allee effect constrains the persistence zones with borders defined by crisis bifurcations. We study the role of random noise on the contraction and destruction of these zones. This phenomenon of the noise-induced extinction is investigated with the help of direct numerical simulations and semi-analytical approach based on the stochastic sensitivity functions. Stochastic transitions from the persistence regimes to the extinction are studied by the analysis of the mutual arrangement of the basins of attraction and confidence domains.

Keywords: Allee effect; Noise-induced extinction; Population dynamics; Ricker-type models; Stochastic sensitivity.

Publication types

  • Research Support, Non-U.S. Gov't

MeSH terms

  • Animals
  • Computer Simulation
  • Extinction, Biological*
  • Mathematical Concepts
  • Models, Biological*
  • Nonlinear Dynamics
  • Population Density
  • Population Dynamics / statistics & numerical data*
  • Stochastic Processes