Factors affecting the quantitative uncertainty of the estimated short-term intake. Part I-Calculation methods

J Environ Sci Health B. 2018 Jun 3;53(6):394-403. doi: 10.1080/03601234.2018.1439815.

Abstract

The calculation of the combined uncertainty of the international estimated short-term intake (IESTI) of ethephon residues in apples is shown as an example. The ethephon residues in apples were reported by the Joint FAO (Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations)/WHO (World Health Organization) Meeting on Pesticide Residues (JMPR). The apple consumption data were taken from the IESTI (international short-term intake) calculation template used by the JMPR. The IESTI was calculated with the currently used method (case 2a) and a proposed one recommended by the EFSA (European Food Safety Authority)/RIVM (Dutch National Institute for Public Health) Scientific Workshop co-sponsored by FAO and WHO. In this example, the ratio of IESTIproposed/IESTIcurrent and their combined relative uncertainty are about 2.8, and 1.7, respectively. The larger IESTI and uncertainty obtained with the proposed equation are the consequence of calculation only with the large portion (LP) instead of its combination with unit mass, and the MRL instead of the highest residue (HR). The LP is the major contributor to the combined uncertainty. Both the calculated IESTI and its combined uncertainty depend on the actual food - pesticide residue combination, and should be calculated for each case.

Keywords: Pesticide residue; acute reference dose; combined uncertainty; exposure assessment; food consumption; relative standard uncertainty; short-term intake; variability.

MeSH terms

  • Databases, Factual
  • Dietary Exposure / analysis*
  • Food Contamination / analysis*
  • Humans
  • Malus / chemistry*
  • Organophosphorus Compounds / analysis
  • Organophosphorus Compounds / toxicity*
  • Pesticide Residues / analysis
  • Pesticide Residues / toxicity
  • Uncertainty

Substances

  • Organophosphorus Compounds
  • Pesticide Residues
  • ethephon