Background and purpose: Current prognostic models for soft tissue sarcoma (STS) patients are solely based on staging information. Treatment-related data have not been included to date. Including such information, however, could help to improve these models.
Materials and methods: A single-center retrospective cohort of 136 STS patients treated with radiotherapy (RT) was analyzed for patients' characteristics, staging information, and treatment-related data. Therapeutic imaging studies and pathology reports of neoadjuvantly treated patients were analyzed for signs of response. Random forest machine learning-based models were used to predict patients' death and disease progression at 2 years. Pre-treatment and treatment models were compared.
Results: The prognostic models achieved high performances. Using treatment features improved the overall performance for all three classification types: prediction of death, and of local and systemic progression (area under the receiver operatoring characteristic curve (AUC) of 0.87, 0.88, and 0.84, respectively). Overall, RT-related features, such as the planning target volume and total dose, had preeminent importance for prognostic performance. Therapy response features were selected for prediction of disease progression.
Conclusions: A machine learning-based prognostic model combining known prognostic factors with treatment- and response-related information showed high accuracy for individualized risk assessment. This model could be used for adjustments of follow-up procedures.
Keywords: Biomarker; Decision support systems; Precision medicine; Prognostic model; Random forest.