Mapping human vulnerability to climate change in the Brazilian Amazon: The construction of a municipal vulnerability index

PLoS One. 2018 Feb 14;13(2):e0190808. doi: 10.1371/journal.pone.0190808. eCollection 2018.

Abstract

Vulnerability, understood as the propensity to be adversely affected, has attained importance in the context of climate change by helping to understand what makes populations and territories predisposed to its impacts. Conditions of vulnerability may vary depending on the characteristics of each territory studied-social, environmental, infrastructural, public policies, among others. Thus, the present study aimed to evaluate what makes the municipalities of the state of Amazonas, Brazil, vulnerable to climate change in the context of the largest tropical forest in the world, and which regions of the State are the most susceptible. A Municipal Vulnerability Index was developed, which was used to associate current socio-environmental characteristics of municipalities with climate change scenarios in order to identify those that may be most affected by climate change. The results showed that poor adaptive capacity and poverty had the most influence on current vulnerability of the municipalities of Amazonas with the most vulnerable areas being the southern, northern, and eastern regions of the state. When current vulnerability was related to future climate change projections, the most vulnerable areas were the northern, northeastern, extreme southern, and southwestern regions. From a socio-environmental and climatic point of view, these regions should be a priority for public policy efforts to reduce their vulnerability and prepare them to cope with the adverse aspects of climate change.

Publication types

  • Research Support, Non-U.S. Gov't

MeSH terms

  • Brazil
  • Climate Change
  • Conservation of Natural Resources / methods*
  • Forests
  • Humans
  • Tropical Climate*

Grants and funding

This research article was funded by the National Fund for Climate Change (Fundo Clima – process number 02000.000134/2014-60), linked to the Brazilian Ministry of Environment, which financially supported the development of the main scientific project entitled: “Construction of Vulnerability Indices as an Input for the Elaboration of Adaptation Actions to Climate Change in Brazil”. This main project is being conducted for six Brazilian states, including the state of Amazonas. The funder had no role in study design, data collection and analysis, decision to publish, or preparation of the manuscript.