Serum Metabolomic Profiling of All-Cause Mortality: A Prospective Analysis in the Alpha-Tocopherol, Beta-Carotene Cancer Prevention (ATBC) Study Cohort

Am J Epidemiol. 2018 Aug 1;187(8):1721-1732. doi: 10.1093/aje/kwy017.

Abstract

Tobacco use, hypertension, hyperglycemia, overweight, and inactivity are leading causes of overall and cardiovascular disease (CVD) mortality worldwide, yet the relevant metabolic alterations responsible are largely unknown. We conducted a serum metabolomic analysis of 620 men in the Alpha-Tocopherol, Beta-Carotene Cancer Prevention Study (1985-2013). During 28 years of follow-up, there were 435 deaths (197 CVD and 107 cancer). The analysis included 406 known metabolites measured with ultra-high-performance liquid chromatography/mass spectrometry-gas chromatography/mass spectrometry. We used Cox regression to estimate mortality hazard ratios for a 1-standard-deviation difference in metabolite signals. The strongest associations with overall mortality were N-acetylvaline (hazard ratio (HR) = 1.28; P < 4.1 × 10-5, below Bonferroni statistical threshold) and dimethylglycine, 7-methylguanine, C-glycosyltryptophan, taurocholate, and N-acetyltryptophan (1.23 ≤ HR ≤ 1.32; 5 × 10-5 ≤ P ≤ 1 × 10-4). C-Glycosyltryptophan, 7-methylguanine, and 4-androsten-3β,17β-diol disulfate were statistically significantly associated with CVD mortality (1.49 ≤ HR ≤ 1.62, P < 4.1 × 10-5). No metabolite was associated with cancer mortality, at a false discovery rate of <0.1. Individuals with a 1-standard-deviation higher metabolite risk score had increased all-cause and CVD mortality in the test set (HR = 1.4, P = 0.05; HR = 1.8, P = 0.003, respectively). The several serum metabolites and their composite risk score independently associated with all-cause and CVD mortality may provide potential leads regarding the molecular basis of mortality.

Publication types

  • Research Support, N.I.H., Intramural
  • Research Support, U.S. Gov't, P.H.S.

MeSH terms

  • Cardiovascular Diseases / blood*
  • Cardiovascular Diseases / mortality*
  • Cause of Death
  • Chromatography, Liquid
  • Dietary Supplements
  • Finland / epidemiology
  • Humans
  • Male
  • Metabolomics / methods*
  • Middle Aged
  • Neoplasms / prevention & control*
  • Prospective Studies
  • Risk Factors
  • Tandem Mass Spectrometry
  • alpha-Tocopherol / therapeutic use*
  • beta Carotene / therapeutic use*

Substances

  • beta Carotene
  • alpha-Tocopherol