Impact on short-lived climate forcers increases projected warming due to deforestation

C E Scott; S A Monks; D V Spracklen; S R Arnold; P M Forster; A Rap; M Äijälä; P Artaxo; K S Carslaw; M P Chipperfield; M Ehn; S Gilardoni; L Heikkinen; M Kulmala; T Petäjä; C L S Reddington; L V Rizzo; E Swietlicki; E Vignati; C Wilson

doi:10.1038/s41467-017-02412-4

Impact on short-lived climate forcers increases projected warming due to deforestation

Nat Commun. 2018 Jan 11;9(1):157. doi: 10.1038/s41467-017-02412-4.

Authors

C E Scott¹, S A Monks^{2

3}, D V Spracklen⁴, S R Arnold⁴, P M Forster⁴, A Rap⁴, M Äijälä⁵, P Artaxo⁶, K S Carslaw⁴, M P Chipperfield⁴, M Ehn⁵, S Gilardoni⁷, L Heikkinen⁵, M Kulmala⁵, T Petäjä⁵, C L S Reddington⁴, L V Rizzo⁸, E Swietlicki^{9

10}, E Vignati¹¹, C Wilson⁴

Affiliations

¹ Institute for Climate and Atmospheric Science, School of Earth and Environment, University of Leeds, Leeds, UK. c.e.scott@leeds.ac.uk.
² Cooperative Institute for Research in Environmental Sciences, University of Colorado, Boulder, CO, USA.
³ Chemical Sciences Division, NOAA Earth System Research Laboratory, Boulder, CO, USA.
⁴ Institute for Climate and Atmospheric Science, School of Earth and Environment, University of Leeds, Leeds, UK.
⁵ Department of Physics, University of Helsinki, P.O. Box 64, 00014, Helsinki, Finland.
⁶ Institute of Physics, University of Sao Paulo, Diadema, Sao Paulo, Brazil.
⁷ National Research Council, Institute of Atmospheric Sciences and Climate, Bologna, Italy.
⁸ Department of Earth and Exact Sciences, Institute of Environmental, Chemical and Pharmaceutics Sciences, Federal University of Sao Paulo, UNIFESP, Diadema, Sao Paulo, Brazil.
⁹ Division of Nuclear Physics, Lund University, P.O. Box 118, 221 00, Lund, Sweden.
¹⁰ Centre for Environmental and Climate Research, Lund University, P.O. Box 118, 221 00, Lund, Sweden.
¹¹ European Commission, Joint Research Center, Directorate for Energy Transport and Climate, Ispra, Italy.

Abstract

The climate impact of deforestation depends on the relative strength of several biogeochemical and biogeophysical effects. In addition to affecting the exchange of carbon dioxide (CO₂) and moisture with the atmosphere and surface albedo, vegetation emits biogenic volatile organic compounds (BVOCs) that alter the formation of short-lived climate forcers (SLCFs), which include aerosol, ozone and methane. Here we show that a scenario of complete global deforestation results in a net positive radiative forcing (RF; 0.12 W m^-2) from SLCFs, with the negative RF from decreases in ozone and methane concentrations partially offsetting the positive aerosol RF. Combining RFs due to CO₂, surface albedo and SLCFs suggests that global deforestation could cause 0.8 K warming after 100 years, with SLCFs contributing 8% of the effect. However, deforestation as projected by the RCP8.5 scenario leads to zero net RF from SLCF, primarily due to nonlinearities in the aerosol indirect effect.

Publication types

Research Support, Non-U.S. Gov't