Objectives: We assess how different scenarios of cardiovascular disease (CVD) prevention, aimed at meeting targets set by the World Health Organization (WHO) for 2025), may impact healthcare spending in Quebec, Canada over the 2050 horizon.
Methods: We provide long-term forecasts of healthcare use and costs at the Quebec population level using a novel dynamic microsimulation model. Using both survey and administrative data, we simulate the evolution of the Quebec population's health status until death, through a series of dynamic transitions that accounts for social and demographic characteristics associated with CVD risk factors.
Results: A 25% reduction in CVD mortality between 2012 and 2025 achieved through decreased incidence could contain the pace of healthcare cost growth towards 2050 by nearly 7 percentage points for consultations with a physician, and by almost 9 percentage points for hospitalizations. Over the 2012-2050 period, the present value of cost savings is projected to amount to C$13.1 billion in 2012 dollars. The years of life saved due to improved life expectancy could be worth another C$38.2 billion. Addressing CVD mortality directly instead would bring about higher healthcare costs, but would generate more value in terms of years of life saved, at C$69.6 billion.
Conclusions: Potential savings associated with plausible reductions in CVD, aimed at reaching a World Health Organization target over a 12-year period, are sizeable and may help address challenges associated with an aging population.