Improved river continuity facilitates fishes' abilities to track future environmental changes

Abstract

Barriers represent one of the largest anthropogenic impacts on the ecological status of rivers, and they also potentially restrict fishes' ability to respond to future environmental changes. Thus, river management aims to restore the longitudinal connectivity of rivers to allow continuous migration and movement of water, sediments and biota. However, it is often unclear whether the targeted barriers are also those most relevant for fish species, particularly to track future habitat shifts caused by environmental change. In this study, we applied species distribution models and the GIS-based fish dispersal model FIDIMO to evaluate the impacts of barriers (e.g. weirs and dams) on the dispersal of 17 native fish species in the European River Elbe with a particular focus on climate- and land use-induced habitat shifts. Specifically, we compared three scenarios of longitudinal connectivity: (i) current longitudinal connectivity, (ii) connectivity improvements as planned by river managers for 2021 and (iii) a reference with full longitudinal connectivity. The models indicated that barriers restricted the movement of two modeled fish species on average, thus impeding fishes' abilities to track future habitat shifts. Moreover, the number of species affected by barriers increased downstream. For the River Elbe, our results suggest that river management has most likely identified the most relevant barriers in respect to the modeled species and future environmental change. We emphasize that river management and barrier prioritization must thoroughly consider species-specific movement and dispersal abilities, as well as the specific spatial arrangement of barriers in the river system in relation to the spatial distribution of species' populations and suitable habitats.

Keywords: Barrier prioritization; Climate change; Habitat shift; Longitudinal connectivity; River Elbe; River basin management.