Precision oncology requires sensitive and specific clinical biomarkers. Carbohydrate Antigen 19-9 (CA19-9) is widely used in pancreatic ductal adenocarcinoma (PDA) but lacks sensitivity and specificity. Nearly all PDAs harbor somatic KRAS mutations, nominating circulating tumor DNA (ctDNA) KRAS as an alternative disease biomarker, however, variable clinical performance has limited its clinical utility. We applied an ultrasensitive, PCR mutation enrichment, next generation sequencing ctDNA KRAS assay in a large cohort of patients with unresectable PDA (N = 189) recruited to the BIOPAC study between 2008-2015. Baseline and longitudinal serum CA19-9 and plasma ctDNA KRAS were correlated with time to progression (TTP) and overall survival (OS). Baseline ctDNA KRAS detection rate was 93.7% (86.4% in patients with non-elevated CA19-9). ctDNA KRAS and CA19-9 were positively correlated yet independently associated with TTP and OS (ctDNA KRAS p = 0.0018 and 0.0014; CA19-9 p = 0.0294 and 0.0007, respectively). A generated model quantitating longitudinal ctDNA KRAS correctly assessed greater than 80% of patient responses. Quantitative detection of KRAS ctDNA is an informative prognostic biomarker, complementary to CA19-9 in patients with unresectable PDA. Longitudinal ctDNA KRAS may inform therapeutic decision making and provides a kinetically dynamic and quantitative metric of patient response.
Keywords: CA19-9; KRAS; ctDNA; pancreatic ductal adenocarcinoma; prognostic biomarker.