Background: Few studies compared the diagnostic value of procalcitonin with a combination of other tests including lactate and high-sensitivity C-reactive protein in the prediction of pathogenic bacteremia in emergency department adult patients.
Methods: We performed a retrospective study assessing the differences in performances of procalcitonin at a cutoff of 0.5 ng/mL, lactate at a cutoff of 19.8 mg/dL, high-sensitivity C-reactive protein at a cutoff of 0.8 mg/dL and their combinations for predicting bacteremia in emergency department adult patients. Sensitivity, specificity, overall accuracy, positive-test and negative-test likelihood, and diagnostic odds ratio with 95% confidence interval for each test combination were calculated for comparison. The receiver operating characteristic curve for every single test were compared using DeLong's method. We also performed a sensitivity analysis in two expanded patient cohorts to assess the discriminative ability of procalcitonin or test combination.
Results: A total of 886 patients formed the initial patient cohort. The area under the receiver operating characteristic curve for discriminating positive blood culture was: procalcitonin = 0.72 (95% CI [0.69-0.75]) with a derived optimal cutoff at 3.9 ng/mL; lactate 0.69 (0.66-0.72) with an optimal cutoff at 17.9 mg/dL; high-sensitivity C-reactive protein 0.56 (0.53-0.59) with an optimal cutoff of 13 mg/dL; with pairwise comparisons showing statistically significant better performance of either procalcitonin or lactate outperforming high-sensitivity C-reactive protein. To predict positive blood cultures, the diagnostic odds ratio for procalcitonin was 3.64 (95% CI [2.46-5.51]), lactate 2.93 (2.09-4.14), and high-sensitivity C-reactive protein 0.91 (0.55-1.55; P = 0.79). About combined tests, the diagnostic odds ratio for procalcitonin and lactate increases were 3.98 (95% CI [2.81-5.63]) for positive blood culture prediction. Elevated procalcitonin level rendered a six-fold increased risk of positive gram-negative bacteremia with a diagnostic odds ratio of 6.44 (95% CI [3.65-12.15]), which showed no further improvement in any test combinations. In the sensitivity analysis, as a single test to predict unspecified, gram-negative and gram-positive bacteremia, procalcitonin performed even better in an expanded cohort of 2,234 adult patients in terms of the diagnostic odds ratio.
Discussions: For adult emergency patients, procalcitonin has an acceptable discriminative ability for bacterial blood culture and a better discriminative ability for gram-negative bacteremia when compared with lactate and high-sensitivity C-reactive protein. High-sensitivity C-reactive protein at a cutoff of 0.8 mg/dL performed poorly for the prediction of positive bacterial culture.
Keywords: Bacterial sepsis; Diagnostic odds ratio; Emergency department; Hypersensitivity C-reactive protein; Lactate; Procalcitonin; Septic workup.