Background Evidence on the medium-term clinical course of recurrent headaches is scarce. This study explored the six-month course and factors associated with non-improvement in migraine compared with tension-type headache and cervicogenic headache. Methods In this longitudinal cohort study, the six-month course of headaches was prospectively examined in participants (n = 37 with migraine; n = 42 with tension-type or cervicogenic headache). Participants underwent physical examination for cervical musculoskeletal impairments at baseline. Participants also completed questionnaires on pain, disability and other self-report measures at baseline and follow-up, and kept an electronic diary for 6 months. Course of headaches was examined using mixed within-between analyses of variance and Markov chain modeling. Multiple factors were evaluated as possible factors associated with non-improvement using regression analysis. Results Headache frequency, intensity, and activity interference in migraine and non-migraine headaches were generally stable over 6 months but showed month-to-month variations. Day-to-day variations were more volatile in the migraine than the non-migraine group, with the highest probability of transitioning from any headache state to no headache (probability = 0.82-0.85). The odds of non-improvement in disability was nearly six times higher with cervical joint dysfunction (odds ratio [95% CI] = 5.58 [1.14-27.42]). Conclusions Headache frequency, intensity, and activity interference change over 6 months, with day-to-day variation being more volatile in migraine than non-migraine headaches. Cervical joint dysfunction appears to be associated with non-improvement for disability in 6 months. These results may contribute to strategies for educating patients to help align their expectations with the nature of their headaches.
Keywords: Migraine; cervicogenic headache; disability; longitudinal study; tension-type headache.