Seasonal Variation and Dengue Burden in Paediatric Patients in New Delhi

J Trop Pediatr. 2018 Aug 1;64(4):336-341. doi: 10.1093/tropej/fmx077.

Abstract

Objective: We conducted a study to find a relationship between main weather parameters with admission of positive dengue cases in a tertiary hospital.

Methods: Retrospective analysis was undertaken to identify epidemiological trend of dengue in 2016 from paediatric wards of a tertiary hospital in New Delhi. Data were collected on patient particulars and daily weather from January to December 2016.

Results: A total of 266 confirmed cases of dengue were considered. Relative humidity (RH) was associated with burden of positive dengue cases. On week-wise analysis, each surge of dengue admission was preceded by heavy rain 4-6 weeks earlier. Monthly averaged daily temperature range and RH were noted to have strong correlations with dengue burden, keeping an interval of 2 months in between.

Conclusions: Weather parameters seem to influence magnitude of dengue epidemic, particularly in dengue season. There is need to have an in-depth study about developing a prediction model for dengue epidemic.

MeSH terms

  • Animals
  • Child
  • Culicidae / virology*
  • Dengue / epidemiology*
  • Dengue / virology
  • Dengue Virus / physiology*
  • Epidemics*
  • Female
  • Hospitalization
  • Humans
  • India / epidemiology
  • Insect Vectors / virology*
  • Male
  • Rain
  • Retrospective Studies
  • Seasons
  • Sex Distribution
  • Temperature*
  • Weather