A growing epidemic of atrial fibrillation (AF) has been predicted, although no data on the AF burden has been reported for the United States since 2010. The objectives of this study were to (1) describe trends in AF incidence, prevalence, and postdiagnosis survival from 2004 to 2016 within a large health-care system and (2) extrapolate observed prevalence rates to the entire US population to estimate the national AF burden. This retrospective cohort study incorporates the patients and electronic medical record of the Geisinger Health System, an integrated health-care delivery system serving central and northeast Pennsylvania. Standardized incidence rates were calculated per 1,000 person-years by calendar year, and point prevalence rates estimated on July 1st of the respective years from 2004 to 2016. Rate ratios were estimated from Poisson regression as the annual relative change over time. A total of 464,363 patients met study inclusion criteria. Age- and sex-adjusted AF incidence rates increased over the study period: 4.7, 5.0, 5.8, and 6.2 in 2004, 2008, 2012, and 2016, respectively (rate ratio 1.03 per year, 95% confidence interval 1.02, 1.03). Age- and sex-adjusted prevalence rates increased consistently over time from 2.7%, 3.0%, 3.4%, to 4.1% in 2004, 2008, 2012, and 2016, respectively. In 2004, an estimated 6.1 million Americans had diagnosed AF, increasing to 6.7, 7.8, and 9.3 million in 2008, 2012, and 2016, respectively. Postdiagnosis survival has not improved in recent years. In conclusion, AF incidence and prevalence have increased steadily since 2004, whereas postdiagnosis survival has not improved.
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