Aim: To date, no cardiovascular risk assessment tool has been developed specifically for any Arabian population including Omanis. This study aims to develop a suitable cardiovascular risk prediction model in the form of a statistical equation, for Omanis with type 2 diabetes.
Materials and methods: A sample of 2039 patients with type 2 diabetes selected from primary care settings in the Aldakhiliyah Province of Oman were involved in a retrospective cohort study. All patients were free of cardiovascular disease at baseline (in 2009-2010) and were followed up until: 1) their first cardiovascular event occurred; 2) the patient died, or 3) the end of the data collection in December 2015.
Results: Among the total sample, 192 cardiovascular disease events were recorded within a mean follow-up period of 5.3-year. The 5-year probability of a cardiovascular event was given as 1-0.9991Exp∑XiBi, where Exp ∑XiBi (hazard ratio)=Exp (0.038 age+0.052 DM duration+0.102 HbA1c+0.201 total cholesterol+0.912 albuminuria [1 if present]+0.166 hypertension [1 if present]+0.005 BMI).
Conclusion: The first cardiovascular risk prediction tool in the Arab world was developed in this study. It may be used to estimate the 5-year cardiovascular risk among Omanis with type 2 diabetes in order to plan patient management and preventive measures. However, further validation studies are required to determine the accuracy of the model.
Keywords: Arab; Cardiovascular disease; Model; Oman; Risk prediction; Type 2 diabetes.
Crown Copyright © 2017. Published by Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.