Climates Past, Present, and Yet-to-Come Shape Climate Change Vulnerabilities

Christopher P Nadeau; Mark C Urban; Jon R Bridle

doi:10.1016/j.tree.2017.07.012

Climates Past, Present, and Yet-to-Come Shape Climate Change Vulnerabilities

Trends Ecol Evol. 2017 Oct;32(10):786-800. doi: 10.1016/j.tree.2017.07.012. Epub 2017 Aug 24.

Authors

Christopher P Nadeau¹, Mark C Urban², Jon R Bridle³

Affiliations

¹ Department of Ecology and Evolutionary Biology, University of Connecticut, 75 North Eagleville Road, Storrs, CT 06269, USA. Electronic address: christopher.nadeau@uconn.edu.
² Department of Ecology and Evolutionary Biology, University of Connecticut, 75 North Eagleville Road, Storrs, CT 06269, USA; Center of Biological Risk, University of Connecticut, Storrs, CT 06269, USA.
³ School of Biological Sciences, University of Bristol, Bristol BS8 1UD, UK.

PMID: 28844791
DOI: 10.1016/j.tree.2017.07.012

Abstract

Climate change is altering life at multiple scales, from genes to ecosystems. Predicting the vulnerability of populations to climate change is crucial to mitigate negative impacts. We suggest that regional patterns of spatial and temporal climatic variation scaled to the traits of an organism can predict where and why populations are most vulnerable to climate change. Specifically, historical climatic variation affects the sensitivity and response capacity of populations to climate change by shaping traits and the genetic variation in those traits. Present and future climatic variation can affect both climate change exposure and population responses. We provide seven predictions for how climatic variation might affect the vulnerability of populations to climate change and suggest key directions for future research.

Keywords: adaptive capacity; climate change; climatic variation; sensitivity; spatial variation; temporal variation.

MeSH terms

Climate
Climate Change*
Ecosystem
Genetic Variation*
Phenotype