Purpose: To study the predictive and prognostic value of magnetic resonance imaging (MRI)-assessed tumor response after long-course neoadjuvant therapy for locally advanced rectal cancer.
Methods: This study included 79 patients who had T3 or T4 and/or N+ rectal cancer treated with long-course neoadjuvant chemoradiation. MRI-assessed tumor regression grade (mrTRG) was assessed in 64 patients. MRIs were reviewed by the study radiologist. Surgical and pathologic reports for those who underwent surgery were reviewed. Disease-free survival (DFS) was estimated. Progression during therapy, local relapse, metastasis, and death resulting from the tumor were classified as events. Statistical significance was calculated.
Results: In 11 patients, the tumor completely disappeared on MRI; that is, it had an mrTRG of 1. All but one patient, who chose deferred surgery, had a complete pathologic response (pCR), with a positive predictive value of nearly 100%. Of the 20 patients who had an mrTRG of 2 on MRI, six had a pCR. mrTRG 3, mrTRG 4, and mrTRG 5 were detected in 24, six, and three patients, respectively, of whom only one patient had a pCR. The 2-year DFS was 77%. The mrTRG was significant for DFS. The 2-year DFS was 88% for patients with a good response versus 66% for those with a poor response (P = .046).
Conclusion: MRI-assessed complete tumor response was strongly correlated with pCR and, therefore, can be used as a surrogate marker to predict absence of viable tumor cells. Our results can be used to implement use of mrTRGs in larger prospective correlative studies as a tool to select patients for whom deferred surgery may be appropriate. Also, those with a poor response may be offered further treatment options before definitive surgery.