Understanding historical context can help clarify the ecological and biogeographic characteristics of species population changes. The sable (Martes zibellina) population has decreased dramatically in Northeast China since the l950s, and understanding the changes in its distribution over time is necessary to support conservation efforts. To achieve this goal, we integrated ecological niche modeling and historical records of sables to estimate the magnitude of change in their distribution over time. Our results revealed a 51.71% reduction in their distribution in 2000-2016 compared with the potential distribution in the 1950s. This reduction was related to climate change (Pearson's correlation: Bio1, -.962, p < .01; Bio2, -.962, p < .01; Bio5, .817, p < .05; Bio6, .847, p < .05) and human population size (-.956, p < .01). The sable population tended to migrate in different directions and elevations over time in different areas due to climate change: In the Greater Khingan Mountains, they moved northward and to lower elevations; in the Lesser Khingan Mountains, they moved northward; and in the Changbai Mountains, they move southward and to higher elevations. Active conservation strategies should be considered in locations where sable populations have migrated or may migrate to.
Keywords: Martes zibellina; climate change; conservation; historical change; potential distribution; sable.