Longitudinal study of changing psychological outcomes following the Victorian Black Saturday bushfires

Richard A Bryant; Lisa Gibbs; Hugh Colin Gallagher; Phillipa Pattison; Dean Lusher; Colin MacDougall; Louise Harms; Karen Block; Vikki Sinnott; Greg Ireton; John Richardson; David Forbes

doi:10.1177/0004867417714337

Longitudinal study of changing psychological outcomes following the Victorian Black Saturday bushfires

Aust N Z J Psychiatry. 2018 Jun;52(6):542-551. doi: 10.1177/0004867417714337. Epub 2017 Jun 12.

Authors

Richard A Bryant^{1

2}, Lisa Gibbs³, Hugh Colin Gallagher⁴, Phillipa Pattison⁵, Dean Lusher⁴, Colin MacDougall⁶, Louise Harms⁷, Karen Block³, Vikki Sinnott⁸, Greg Ireton³, John Richardson⁹, David Forbes²

Affiliations

¹ 1 School of Psychology, University of New South Wales, Sydney, NSW, Australia.
² 2 Phoenix Australia, Centre for Posttraumatic Mental Health, Department of Psychiatry, The University of Melbourne, Melbourne, VIC, Australia.
³ 3 The Jack Brockhoff Child Health & Wellbeing Program, Melbourne School of Population and Global Health, The University of Melbourne, Melbourne, VIC, Australia.
⁴ 4 Centre for Transformative Innovation, Swinburne University of Technology, Melbourne, VIC, Australia.
⁵ 5 University of Sydney, Sydney, NSW, Australia.
⁶ 6 Southgate Institute for Health, Society and Equity, Flinders University, Adelaide, SA, Australia.
⁷ 7 Department of Social Work, The University of Melbourne, Melbourne, VIC, Australia.
⁸ 8 Department of Health, Melbourne, VIC, Australia.
⁹ 9 Emergency Services, Australian Red Cross, Melbourne, VIC, Australia.

PMID: 28605987
DOI: 10.1177/0004867417714337

Abstract

Objectives: To map the changing prevalence and predictors of psychological outcomes in affected communities 5 years following the Black Saturday bushfires in Victoria.

Method: Follow-up assessment of longitudinal cohort study in high, medium and non-affected communities in Victoria, Australia. Participants included 1017 respondents (Wave 1) interviewed via telephone and web-based survey between December 2011 and January 2013, and 735 (76.1%) eligible participants were retested between July and November 2014 (Wave 2). The survey included measures of fire-related and subsequent stressful events, probable posttraumatic stress disorder, major depressive episode, alcohol use and severe distress.

Results: There were reduced rates of fire-related posttraumatic stress disorder (8.7% vs 12.1%), general posttraumatic stress disorder (14.7% vs 18.2%), major depressive episode (9.0% vs 10.9%) and serious mental illness (5.4% vs 7.8%). Rates of resilience increased over time (81.8% vs 77.1%), and problem alcohol use remained high across Wave 1 (22.1%) and Wave 2 (21.4%). The most robust predictor of later development of fire-related posttraumatic stress disorder (odds ratio: 2.11; 95% confidence interval: [1.22, 3.65]), general posttraumatic stress disorder (odds ratio: 3.15; 95% confidence interval: [1.98, 5.02]), major depressive episode (odds ratio: 2.86; 95% confidence interval: [1.74, 4.70]), serious mental illness (odds ratio: 2.67; 95% confidence interval: [0.57, 1.72]) or diminished resilience (odds ratio: 2.01; 95% confidence interval: [1.32, 3.05]) was extent of recent life stressors.

Conclusion: Although rates of mental health problems diminished over time, they remained higher than national levels. Findings suggest that policy-makers need to recognize that the mental health consequences of disasters can persist for many years after the event and need to allocate resources towards those who are most at risk as a result of substantive losses and ongoing life stressors.

Keywords: Black Saturday; Posttraumatic stress disorder; bushfires; disaster; resilience.

MeSH terms

Adult
Aged
Alcohol Drinking / epidemiology*
Depressive Disorder, Major / epidemiology*
Female
Follow-Up Studies
Humans
Longitudinal Studies
Male
Middle Aged
Resilience, Psychological*
Stress Disorders, Post-Traumatic / epidemiology*
Stress, Psychological / epidemiology*
Victoria / epidemiology
Wildfires / statistics & numerical data*