Global temporal patterns of pancreatic cancer and association with socioeconomic development

Sci Rep. 2017 Jun 9;7(1):3165. doi: 10.1038/s41598-017-02997-2.

Abstract

Pancreatic cancer induces a substantial global burden. We examined its global incidence/mortality rates and their correlation with socioeconomic development (Human Development Index [HDI] and Gross Domestic Product [GDP] in 2000 as proxy measures). Data on age-standardized incidence/mortality rates in 2012 were retrieved from the GLOBOCAN database. Temporal patterns in 1998-2007 were assessed for 39 countries according to gender. The Average Annual Percent Change (AAPC) of the incidence/mortality trends was evaluated using joinpoint regression analysis. The age-standardized incidence ranged between 0.8-8.9/100,000. When compared among countries, Brazil (AAPC = 10.4, 95%C.I. = 0.8,21) and France (AAPC = 4.7, 95%C.I. = 3.6,5.9) reported the highest incidence rise in men. The greatest increase in women was reported in Thailand (AAPC = 7, 95%C.I. = 2.1,12.1) and Ecuador (AAPC = 4.3, 95%C.I. = 1.3,7.3). For mortality, the Philippines (APCC = 4.3, 95%C.I. = 2,6.6) and Croatia (AAPC = 2, 95% C.I. = 0,3.9) reported the biggest increase among men. The Philippines (AAPC = 5.8, 95% C.I. 4.5,7.2) and Slovakia (AAPC = 3.1, 95% C.I. 0.9,5.3) showed the most prominent rise among women. Its incidence was positively correlated with HDI (men: r = 0.66; women: r = 0.70) and GDP (men: r = 0.29; women: r = 0.28, all p < 0.05), and similarly for mortality (men: r = 0.67; women: r = 0.72 [HDI]; men: r = 0.23; women: r = 0.28 [GDP]). In summary, the incidence and mortality of pancreatic cancer were rising in many countries, requiring regular surveillance.

MeSH terms

  • Asia / epidemiology
  • Databases, Factual
  • Economic Development / statistics & numerical data*
  • Europe / epidemiology
  • Female
  • Gross Domestic Product / statistics & numerical data*
  • Humans
  • Incidence
  • Latin America / epidemiology
  • Male
  • Pancreatic Neoplasms / economics*
  • Pancreatic Neoplasms / epidemiology*
  • Pancreatic Neoplasms / mortality
  • Pancreatic Neoplasms / pathology
  • Regression Analysis
  • Sex Factors
  • Survival Analysis