Background: Fibroblast growth factor 21 (FGF21) has demonstrated beneficial effects on lipid and carbohydrate metabolism. In cross-sectional studies, an association of raised circulating FGF21 levels with coronary heart disease (CHD) was found in some but not all studies. Here we investigated prospectively whether baseline serum FGF21 levels could predict incident CHD in subjects with type 2 diabetes mellitus and no known cardiovascular diseases.
Methods and results: Baseline serum FGF21 levels were measured in 3528 Chinese subjects with type 2 diabetes mellitus recruited from the Hong Kong West Diabetes Registry. The role of baseline serum FGF21 levels in predicting incident CHD over a median follow-up of 3.8 years was analyzed using Cox regression analysis. Among 3528 recruited subjects without known cardiovascular diseases, 147 (4.2%) developed CHD over a mean follow-up of 4 years. Baseline serum log-transformed FGF21 levels were significantly higher in those who had incident CHD than those who did not (222.7 pg/mL [92.8-438.4] versus 151.1 pg/mL [75.6-274.6]; P<0.001). On multivariable Cox regression analysis, baseline serum FGF21 levels, using an optimal cutoff of 206.22 pg/mL derived from our study, independently predicted incident CHD (hazard ratio, 1.55; 95% CI, 1.10-2.19; P=0.013) and significantly improved net reclassification index and integrated discrimination improvement after adjustment for conventional cardiovascular risk factors.
Conclusions: We have demonstrated, for the first time, that serum FGF21 level is an independent predictor of incident CHD and might be usefully utilized as a biomarker for identifying type 2 diabetes mellitus subjects with raised CHD risk, for primary prevention.
Keywords: adipokine; cardiovascular disease; coronary heart disease; primary prevention; type 2 diabetes mellitus.
© 2017 The Authors. Published on behalf of the American Heart Association, Inc., by Wiley.