Background: Early identification of people at risk for a contralateral hip fracture would be desirable to favorably influence patients' prognosis. A recent systematic review failed to depict stringent patterns of risk parameters to be used for decision-making in clinical practice.
Objective: To perform a consensus study using the Delphi method to reach an expert consensus on predictive parameters for the occurrence of a fall and a contralateral hip fracture 1 and 3 years after hip fracture.
Methods: A list of potential members of the expert panel was identified based on the authors' list of a recently conducted systematic review. Participating experts were asked to name parameters determining the probability for a fall and a contralateral hip fracture 1 and 3 years after an occurred hip fracture, separately. Additionally, we asked how those stated parameters should be measured. All mentioned parameters were compiled and sent back to the experts asking them to weight each single parameter by assigning a number between 1 (not important) and 10 (very important). The survey was conducted online using the REDCap software package. We defined expert agreement if the interquartile range of attributed weights for a parameter was ≤2. A relevant parameter had at least a median weight of 8.
Results: Twelve experts from 7 countries completed the survey. Presence of fall history and mental and general health status were considered relevant irrespective of the outcome. For falling within 1 and 3 years, the number of medications and residential status were considered relevant, while for fractures within 1 and 3 years, osteoporosis management was considered important.
Conclusion: Using the insights gained in this consensus study, empiric studies need to be set up assessing the prognostic value of the selected parameters.
Keywords: Delphi method; expert consensus; fracture; osteoporosis; prediction.