The behavior of many biochemical processes depends crucially on molecules rapidly rebinding after dissociating. In the case of multisite protein modification, the importance of rebinding has been demonstrated both experimentally and through several recent computational studies involving stochastic spatial simulations. As rebinding stems from spatio-temporal correlations, theorists have resorted to models that explicitly include space to properly account for the effects of rebinding. However, for reactions in three space dimensions it was recently shown that well-mixed ordinary differential equation (ODE) models can incorporate rebinding by adding connections to the reaction network. The rate constants for these new connections involve the probability that a pair of molecules rapidly rebinds after dissociation. In order to study biochemical reactions on membranes, in this paper we derive an explicit formula for this rebinding probability for reactions in two space dimensions. We show that ODE models can use the formula to replicate detailed stochastic spatial simulations, and that the formula can predict ultrasensitivity for reactions involving multisite modification of membrane-bound proteins. Further, we compute a new concentration-dependent rebinding probability for reactions in three space dimensions. Our analysis predicts that rebinding plays a much larger role in reactions on membranes compared to reactions in cytoplasm.