Bayesian exponential random graph modelling of interhospital patient referral networks

Stat Med. 2017 Aug 15;36(18):2902-2920. doi: 10.1002/sim.7301. Epub 2017 Apr 18.

Abstract

Using original data that we have collected on referral relations between 110 hospitals serving a large regional community, we show how recently derived Bayesian exponential random graph models may be adopted to illuminate core empirical issues in research on relational coordination among healthcare organisations. We show how a rigorous Bayesian computation approach supports a fully probabilistic analytical framework that alleviates well-known problems in the estimation of model parameters of exponential random graph models. We also show how the main structural features of interhospital patient referral networks that prior studies have described can be reproduced with accuracy by specifying the system of local dependencies that produce - but at the same time are induced by - decentralised collaborative arrangements between hospitals. Copyright © 2017 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

Keywords: Bayesian inference; Monte Carlo methods; exponential random graph models; interhospital patient referral networks; interorganisational networks; statistical models for social networks.

MeSH terms

  • Algorithms
  • Bayes Theorem*
  • Biostatistics
  • Community Networks / statistics & numerical data
  • Computer Simulation
  • Humans
  • Italy
  • Markov Chains
  • Models, Statistical*
  • Monte Carlo Method
  • Referral and Consultation / statistics & numerical data*