Background: Disability and mortality represent the most relevant clinical outcomes after acute ischemic stroke. Recently, a number of prognostic models of acute ischemic stroke have been developed, but they have not been extensively validated. In this study, we evaluated the ability of 3 prognostic models including the iScore, the PLAN score, and the ASTRAL score in predicting clinical poor outcomes or mortality at 6 months in patients with acute ischemic stroke.
Methods: A total of 323 patients were divided into a good-prognosis group and a poor-prognosis group based on the modified Rankin Scale. Model discrimination was quantified by calculating the area under the receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curve, and calibration was assessed by Hosmer-Lemeshow goodness of fit test and Pearson correlation coefficient.
Results: We identified 96 (29.7%) patients with poor prognosis, including 21 who were dead. All 3 models showed good ability in predicting poor prognosis and mortality in patients with acute ischemic stroke (all ROC > .70). There was no difference between these 3 models in terms of sensitivity and accuracy (all P > .05).
Conclusions: The results of this study suggest that the iScore, the PLAN score, and the ASTRAL score were equal in predicting 6-month poor prognosis and mortality in patients with acute ischemic stroke. Overall, there was a very high correlation between observed and expected outcomes at the risk score level.
Keywords: ASTRAL score; PLAN score; acute ischemic stroke; iScore; prognosis.
Copyright © 2017 National Stroke Association. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.