Proposal for a New Predictive Model of Short-Term Mortality After Living Donor Liver Transplantation due to Acute Liver Failure

Ann Transplant. 2017 Feb 21:22:101-107. doi: 10.12659/aot.901771.

Abstract

BACKGROUND Acute liver failure (ALF) is known to be a rapidly progressive and fatal disease. Various models which could help to estimate the post-transplant outcome for ALF have been developed; however, none of them have been proved to be the definitive predictive model of accuracy. We suggest a new predictive model, and investigated which model has the highest predictive accuracy for the short-term outcome in patients who underwent living donor liver transplantation (LDLT) due to ALF. MATERIAL AND METHODS Data from a total 88 patients were collected retrospectively. King's College Hospital criteria (KCH), Child-Turcotte-Pugh (CTP) classification, and model for end-stage liver disease (MELD) score were calculated. Univariate analysis was performed, and then multivariate statistical adjustment for preoperative variables of ALF prognosis was performed. A new predictive model was developed, called the MELD conjugated serum phosphorus model (MELD-p). The individual diagnostic accuracy and cut-off value of models in predicting 3-month post-transplant mortality were evaluated using the area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUC). The difference in AUC between MELD-p and the other models was analyzed. The diagnostic improvement in MELD-p was assessed using the net reclassification improvement (NRI) and integrated discrimination improvement (IDI). RESULTS The MELD-p and MELD scores had high predictive accuracy (AUC >0.9). KCH and serum phosphorus had an acceptable predictive ability (AUC >0.7). The CTP classification failed to show discriminative accuracy in predicting 3-month post-transplant mortality. The difference in AUC between MELD-p and the other models had statistically significant associations with CTP and KCH. The cut-off value of MELD-p was 3.98 for predicting 3-month post-transplant mortality. The NRI was 9.9% and the IDI was 2.9%. CONCLUSIONS MELD-p score can predict 3-month post-transplant mortality better than other scoring systems after LDLT due to ALF. The recommended cut-off value of MELD-p is 3.98.

Publication types

  • Comparative Study

MeSH terms

  • Adult
  • Aged
  • Aged, 80 and over
  • Decision Support Techniques*
  • Female
  • Follow-Up Studies
  • Humans
  • Liver Failure, Acute / mortality
  • Liver Failure, Acute / surgery*
  • Liver Transplantation / mortality*
  • Living Donors*
  • Logistic Models
  • Male
  • Middle Aged
  • Patient Outcome Assessment
  • Predictive Value of Tests
  • Prognosis
  • ROC Curve
  • Retrospective Studies
  • Severity of Illness Index*