Does von Willebrand factor improve the predictive ability of current risk stratification scores in patients with atrial fibrillation?

Sci Rep. 2017 Jan 30:7:41565. doi: 10.1038/srep41565.

Abstract

Von Willebrand factor (vWF) is a biomarker of endothelial dysfunction. We investigated its role on prognosis in anticoagulated atrial fibrillation (AF) patients and determined whether its addition to clinical risk stratification schemes improved event-risk prediction. Consecutive outpatients with non-valvular AF were recruited and rates of thrombotic/cardiovascular events, major bleeding and mortality were recorded. The effect of vWF on prognosis was calculated using a Cox regression model. Improvements in predictive accuracy over current scores were determined by calculating the integrated discrimination improvement (IDI), net reclassification improvement (NRI), comparison of receiver-operator characteristic (ROC) curves and Decision Curve Analysis (DCA). 1215 patients (49% males, age 76 (71-81) years) were included. Follow-up was almost 7 years. Significant associations were found between vWF and cardiovascular events, stroke, mortality and bleeding. Based on IDI and NRI, addition of vWF to CHA2DS2-VASc statistically improved its predictive value, but c-indexes were not significantly different. For major bleeding, the addition of vWF to HAS-BLED improved the c-index but not IDI or NRI. DCA showed minimal net benefit. vWF acts as a simple prognostic biomarker in AF and, whilst its addition to current scores statistically improves prediction for some endpoints, absolute changes and impact on clinical decision-making are marginal.

Publication types

  • Research Support, Non-U.S. Gov't

MeSH terms

  • Aged
  • Aged, 80 and over
  • Atrial Fibrillation / blood
  • Atrial Fibrillation / diagnosis*
  • Atrial Fibrillation / metabolism*
  • Atrial Fibrillation / mortality
  • Clinical Decision-Making
  • Comorbidity
  • Female
  • Humans
  • Male
  • Prognosis
  • Proportional Hazards Models
  • ROC Curve
  • Reactive Oxygen Species
  • Risk Assessment
  • Risk Factors
  • von Willebrand Factor / metabolism*

Substances

  • Reactive Oxygen Species
  • von Willebrand Factor