The Use of Mixed Effects Models for Obtaining Low-Cost Ecosystem Carbon Stock Estimates in Mangroves of the Asia-Pacific

PLoS One. 2017 Jan 9;12(1):e0169096. doi: 10.1371/journal.pone.0169096. eCollection 2017.

Abstract

Mangroves provide extensive ecosystem services that support local livelihoods and international environmental goals, including coastal protection, biodiversity conservation and the sequestration of carbon (C). While voluntary C market projects seeking to preserve and enhance forest C stocks offer a potential means of generating finance for mangrove conservation, their implementation faces barriers due to the high costs of quantifying C stocks through field inventories. To streamline C quantification in mangrove conservation projects, we develop predictive models for (i) biomass-based C stocks, and (ii) soil-based C stocks for the mangroves of the Asia-Pacific. We compile datasets of mangrove biomass C (197 observations from 48 sites) and soil organic C (99 observations from 27 sites) to parameterize the predictive models, and use linear mixed effect models to model the expected C as a function of stand attributes. The most parsimonious biomass model predicts total biomass C stocks as a function of both basal area and the interaction between latitude and basal area, whereas the most parsimonious soil C model predicts soil C stocks as a function of the logarithmic transformations of both latitude and basal area. Random effects are specified by site for both models, which are found to explain a substantial proportion of variance within the estimation datasets and indicate significant heterogeneity across-sites within the region. The root mean square error (RMSE) of the biomass C model is approximated at 24.6 Mg/ha (18.4% of mean biomass C in the dataset), whereas the RMSE of the soil C model is estimated at 4.9 mg C/cm3 (14.1% of mean soil C). The results point to a need for standardization of forest metrics to facilitate meta-analyses, as well as provide important considerations for refining ecosystem C stock models in mangroves.

MeSH terms

  • Algorithms
  • Asia
  • Biomass
  • Carbon / analysis*
  • Ecosystem*
  • Geography
  • Models, Theoretical*
  • Pacific Ocean
  • Reproducibility of Results
  • Soil / chemistry

Substances

  • Soil
  • Carbon

Grants and funding

This work was supported by Tropical Resources Institute, Yale University (JJB); Career and Development Office, School of Forestry and Environmental Studies, Yale University (JJB); Carpenter Sperry Fund, Yale University (JJB); USAID Lowering Emissions in Asia’s Forests (JSB); Danida, Norad and Sida through Mangroves for the Future (JSB); and Royal Norwegian Embassy through Mangroves for the Future (JSB). The funders had no role in study design, data collection and analysis, decision to publish, or preparation of the manuscript. Spatial Informatics Group provided support in the form of salaries for author JSB, but did not have any additional role in the study design, data collection and analysis, decision to publish, or preparation of the manuscript. The specific role of this author is articulated in the ‘author contributions’ section.