Vulnerability and impact assessment of extreme climatic event: A case study of southern Punjab, Pakistan

Abdul Qayyum Aslam; Sajid R Ahmad; Iftikhar Ahmad; Yawar Hussain; Muhammad Sameem Hussain

doi:10.1016/j.scitotenv.2016.11.155

Vulnerability and impact assessment of extreme climatic event: A case study of southern Punjab, Pakistan

Sci Total Environ. 2017 Feb 15:580:468-481. doi: 10.1016/j.scitotenv.2016.11.155. Epub 2016 Dec 28.

Authors

Abdul Qayyum Aslam¹, Sajid R Ahmad², Iftikhar Ahmad³, Yawar Hussain², Muhammad Sameem Hussain³

Affiliations

¹ College of Earth & Environmental Sciences, University of the Punjab, New Campus, Lahore 54000, Pakistan. Electronic address: qayyumdhump@hotmail.com.
² Department of Civil and Environmental Engineering, University of Brasilia, Brasilia DF 70910-900, Brazil.
³ College of Earth & Environmental Sciences, University of the Punjab, New Campus, Lahore 54000, Pakistan.

PMID: 28040227
DOI: 10.1016/j.scitotenv.2016.11.155

Abstract

Understanding of frequency, severity, damages and adaptation costs of climate extremes is crucial to manage their aftermath. Evaluation of PRECIS RCM modelled data under IPCC scenarios in Southern Punjab reveals that monthly mean temperature is 30°C under A2 scenario, 2.4°C higher than A1B which is 27.6°C in defined time lapses. Monthly mean precipitation under A2 scenario ranges from 12 to 15mm and for A1B scenario it ranges from 15 to 19mm. Frequency modelling of floods and droughts via poisson distribution shows increasing trend in upcoming decades posing serious impacts on agriculture and livestock, food security, water resources, public health and economic status. Cumulative loss projected for frequent floods without adaptation will be in the range of USD 66.8-79.3 billion in time lapse of 40years from 2010 base case. Drought damage function @ 18% for A2 scenario and @ 13.5% for A1B scenario was calculated; drought losses on agriculture and livestock sectors were modelled. Cumulative loss projected for frequent droughts without adaptation under A2 scenario will be in the range of USD 7.5-8.5 billion while under A1B scenario it will be in the range of USD 3.5-4.2 billion for time lapse of 60years from base case 1998-2002. Severity analysis of extreme events shows that situation get worse if adaptations are not only included in the policy but also in the integrated development framework with required allocation of funds. This evaluation also highlights the result of cost benefit analysis, benefits of the adaptation options (mean & worst case) for floods and droughts in Southern Punjab. Additionally the research highlights the role of integrated extreme events impact assessment methodology in performing the vulnerability assessments and to support the adaptation decisions. This paper is an effort to highlight importance of bottom up approaches to deal with climate change.

Keywords: Cumulative loss; Extreme event; Frequency modelling; Sensitivity test; Severity analysis; Southern Punjab.