The impact of anthropogenic emissions and meteorological conditions on the spatial variation of ambient SO2 concentrations: A panel study of 113 Chinese cities

Abstract

China has received increased international criticism in recent years in relation to its air pollution levels, both in terms of the transmission of pollutants across international borders and the attendant adverse health effects being witnessed. Whilst existing research has examined the factors influencing ambient air pollutant concentrations, previous studies have failed to adequately explore the determinants of such concentrations from either a source or diffusion perspective. This study addressed both source (specifically, anthropogenic emissions) and diffusion (namely, meteorological conditions) indicators, in order to detect their respective impacts on the spatial variations seen in the distribution of air pollution. Spatial panel data for 113 major cities in China was processed using a range of global regression models-the ordinary least square model, the spatial lag model, and the spatial error model-as well as a local, geographic weighted regression (GWR) model. Results from the study suggest that in 2014, average SO₂ concentrations exceeded China's first-level target. The most polluted cities were found to be predominantly located in northern China, while less polluted cities were located in southern China. Global regression results indicated that precipitation exerts a significant effect on SO₂ reduction (p<0.001) and that a regional increase of 1mm in precipitation can reduce SO₂ concentrations by 0.026μg/m³. Both emission and temperature factors were found to aggravate SO₂ concentrations, although no such significant correlation was found in relation to wind speed. GWR results suggest that the association between SO₂ and its factors varied over space. Increased emissions were found to be able to produce more pollution in the northwest than in other parts of the country. Higher wind speeds and temperatures in northwestern areas were shown to reinforce SO₂ pollution, while in southern regions, they had the opposite effect. Further, increased precipitation was found to exert a greater inhibitory effect on SO₂ pollution in the country's northeast than that in other areas. Our findings could provide a detailed reference for formulating regionally specific emission reduction policies in China.

Keywords: Anthropogenic emissions; China; Meteorological conditions; SO(2) concentration; Spatial variation.