The Hunt Opinion Model-An Agent Based Approach to Recurring Fashion Cycles

PLoS One. 2016 Nov 11;11(11):e0166323. doi: 10.1371/journal.pone.0166323. eCollection 2016.

Abstract

We study a simple agent-based model of the recurring fashion cycles in the society that consists of two interacting communities: "snobs" and "followers" (or "opinion hunters", hence the name of the model). Followers conform to all other individuals, whereas snobs conform only to their own group and anticonform to the other. The model allows to examine the role of the social structure, i.e. the influence of the number of inter-links between the two communities, as well as the role of the stability of links. The latter is accomplished by considering two versions of the same model-quenched (parameterized by fraction L of fixed inter-links) and annealed (parameterized by probability p that a given inter-link exists). Using Monte Carlo simulations and analytical treatment (the latter only for the annealed model), we show that there is a critical fraction of inter-links, above which recurring cycles occur. For p ≤ 0.5 we derive a relation between parameters L and p that allows to compare both models and show that the critical value of inter-connections, p*, is the same for both versions of the model (annealed and quenched) but the period of a fashion cycle is shorter for the quenched model. Near the critical point, the cycles are irregular and a change of fashion is difficult to predict. For the annealed model we also provide a deeper theoretical analysis. We conjecture on topological grounds that the so-called saddle node heteroclinic bifurcation appears at p*. For p ≥ 0.5 we show analytically the existence of the second critical value of p, for which the system undergoes Hopf's bifurcation.

MeSH terms

  • Algorithms*
  • Attitude
  • Choice Behavior / physiology
  • Computer Simulation*
  • Humans
  • Interpersonal Relations*
  • Models, Theoretical*
  • Monte Carlo Method
  • Social Conformity
  • Social Perception

Grants and funding

This work was partially supported by funds from the National Science Centre (NCN, Poland; URL: http://ncn.gov.pl/) through grant no. 2013/11/B/HS4/01061. The funders had no role in study design, data collection and analysis, decision to publish, or preparation of the manuscript.