A stochastic model for the normal tissue complication probability (NTCP) and applicationss

Theresa Stocks; Thomas Hillen; Jiafen Gong; Martin Burger

doi:10.1093/imammb/dqw013

A stochastic model for the normal tissue complication probability (NTCP) and applicationss

Math Med Biol. 2017 Dec 11;34(4):469-492. doi: 10.1093/imammb/dqw013.

Authors

Theresa Stocks¹, Thomas Hillen², Jiafen Gong³, Martin Burger⁴

Affiliations

¹ Department of Mathematics, Stockholm University, SE - 106 91 Stockholm, Sweden.
² Centre for Mathematical Biology, Department of Mathematical and Statistical Sciences, University of Alberta, Edmonton, AB T6G2G1, Canada.
³ The hospital for sick children research institute, SickKids, 555 University Avenue, Toronto, Ontario M5G1X8, Canada.
⁴ Institute for Computational and Applied Mathematics, Excellence Cluster Cells in Motion, University of Münster, Einsteinstrasse 62, D-48149 Münster.

PMID: 27591250
DOI: 10.1093/imammb/dqw013

Abstract

The normal tissue complication probability (NTCP) is a measure for the estimated side effects of a given radiation treatment schedule. Here we use a stochastic logistic birth-death process to define an organ-specific and patient-specific NTCP. We emphasize an asymptotic simplification which relates the NTCP to the solution of a logistic differential equation. This framework is based on simple modelling assumptions and it prepares a framework for the use of the NTCP model in clinical practice. As example, we consider side effects of prostate cancer brachytherapy such as increase in urinal frequency, urinal retention and acute rectal dysfunction.

Keywords: NTCP; TCP; brachytherapy; logistic birth death process; normal tissue complication probability; prostate cancer; radiation treatment; side effects; tumour control probability.

Publication types

Research Support, Non-U.S. Gov't

MeSH terms

Humans
Models, Theoretical*
Neoplasms / radiotherapy*
Radiation Dosage*
Radiotherapy*
Stochastic Processes*