Spatio-temporal cancer mortality studies in Spain have revealed patterns for some tumours which display a distribution that is similar across the sexes and persists over time. Such characteristics would be common to tumours that shared risk factors, including the chemical soil composition. The objective of the present study is to assess the association between levels of chromium and arsenic in soil and the cancer mortality. This is an ecological cancer mortality study at municipal level, covering 861,440 cancer deaths in 7917 Spanish mainland towns from 1999 to 2008. Chromium and arsenic topsoil levels (partial extraction) were determined by ICP-MS at 13,317 sampling points. To estimate the effect of these concentrations on mortality, we fitted Besag, York and Mollié models, which included, as explanatory variables, each town's chromium and arsenic soil levels, estimated by kriging. In addition, we also fitted geostatistical-spatial models including sample locations and town centroids (non-aligned data), using the integrated nested Laplace approximation (INLA) and stochastic partial differential equations (SPDE). All results were adjusted for socio-demographic variables and proximity to industrial emissions. The results showed a statistical association in men and women alike, between arsenic soil levels and mortality due to cancers of the stomach, pancreas, lung and brain and non-Hodgkin's lymphomas (NHL). Among men, an association was observed with cancers of the prostate, buccal cavity and pharynx, oesophagus, colorectal and kidney. Chromium topsoil levels were associated with mortality among women alone, in cancers of the upper gastrointestinal tract, breast and NHL. Our results suggest that chronic exposure arising from low levels of arsenic and chromium in topsoil could be a potential risk factor for developing cancer.
Keywords: Cancer mortality; Epidemiology; Geochemistry; INLA; SPDE; Spatial data.