The wheat curl mite (WCM), Aceria tosichella Keifer, is a major pest of cereals worldwide. It is also a complex of well-defined genetic lineages with divergent physiological traits, which has not been accounted for in applied contexts. The aims of the study were to model the thermal niches of the two most pestiferous WCM lineages, designated MT-1 and MT-8, and to assess the extent to which temperature determines the distribution of these lineages. WCM population dynamics were modeled based on thermal niche data from March to November on the area of Poland (>311,000 km2). The most suitable regions for population development were predicted and compared to empirical field abundance data. Congruence between modeled parameters and field data for mite presence were observed for both WCM lineages although congruence between modeled thermal suitability and mite field abundance was observed only for MT-8. Thermal niche data for MT-1 and MT-8 provide biological insights and aid monitoring and management of WCM and the plant viruses it vectors. The presented models accurately estimate distributions of WCM and can be incorporated into management strategies for both current and predicted climate scenarios.