Ecological risk assessment of ecosystem services in the Taihu Lake Basin of China from 1985 to 2020

Xibao Xu; Guishan Yang; Yan Tan; Qianlai Zhuang; Hengpeng Li; Rongrong Wan; Weizhong Su; Jian Zhang

doi:10.1016/j.scitotenv.2016.02.120

Ecological risk assessment of ecosystem services in the Taihu Lake Basin of China from 1985 to 2020

Sci Total Environ. 2016 Jun 1:554-555:7-16. doi: 10.1016/j.scitotenv.2016.02.120. Epub 2016 Mar 3.

Authors

Xibao Xu¹, Guishan Yang², Yan Tan³, Qianlai Zhuang⁴, Hengpeng Li⁵, Rongrong Wan⁶, Weizhong Su⁷, Jian Zhang⁸

Affiliations

¹ Key Laboratory of Watershed Geographic Sciences, Nanjing Institute of Geography and Limnology, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Nanjing 210008, China; Department of Earth, Atmospheric, and Planetary Sciences, Purdue University, West Lafayette, IN 47907, USA. Electronic address: xbxu@niglas.ac.cn.
² Key Laboratory of Watershed Geographic Sciences, Nanjing Institute of Geography and Limnology, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Nanjing 210008, China. Electronic address: gsyang@niglas.ac.cn.
³ Discipline of Geography, Environment and Population, The University of Adelaide, Adelaide 5000, Australia. Electronic address: yan.tan@adelaide.edu.au.
⁴ Department of Earth, Atmospheric, and Planetary Sciences, Purdue University, West Lafayette, IN 47907, USA. Electronic address: qzhuang@purdue.edu.
⁵ Key Laboratory of Watershed Geographic Sciences, Nanjing Institute of Geography and Limnology, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Nanjing 210008, China. Electronic address: hpli@niglas.ac.cn.
⁶ Key Laboratory of Watershed Geographic Sciences, Nanjing Institute of Geography and Limnology, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Nanjing 210008, China. Electronic address: rrwan@niglas.ac.cn.
⁷ Key Laboratory of Watershed Geographic Sciences, Nanjing Institute of Geography and Limnology, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Nanjing 210008, China. Electronic address: wzsu@niglas.ac.cn.
⁸ Key Laboratory of Watershed Geographic Sciences, Nanjing Institute of Geography and Limnology, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Nanjing 210008, China. Electronic address: jianzhang@niglas.ac.cn.

PMID: 26946060
DOI: 10.1016/j.scitotenv.2016.02.120

Abstract

There are tremendous theoretical, methodological and policy challenges in evaluating the impact of land-use change on the degradation of ecosystem services (ES) at the regional scale. This study addresses these challenges by developing an interdisciplinary methodology based on the Procedure for Ecological Tiered Assessment of Risk (PETAR). This novel methodology integrates ecological models with a land-use change model. This study quantifies the multi-dimensional degradation risks of ES in the Taihu Lake Basin (TLB) of China from 1985 to 2020. Four key ES related to water purification, water quantity adjustment, carbon sequestration and grain production are selected. The study employs models of Denitrification-Decomposition (DNDC), Soil-Water-Atmosphere-Plant (SWAP), Biome-BGC and Agro-ecological Zoning (AEZ) for assimilations. Land-use changes by 2020 were projected using a geographically weighted multinomial logit-cellular automata (GWML-CA) model. The results show that rapid land-use change has posed a great degradation risk of ES in the region in 1985-2020. Slightly less than two-thirds of the basin experienced degradation of ES over the 1985-2010 period, and about 12% of the basin will continue to experience degradation until 2020. Hot spots with severe deterioration in 2010-2020 are projected to be centered around some small and less developed cities in the region. Regulating accelerated urban sprawl and population growth, reinforcing current environmental programs, and establishing monitoring systems for observing dynamics of regional ES are suggested as practical counter-measures.

Keywords: Assimilation models; Ecosystem services; Integrated degradation risk assessment; Land-use change.

Publication types

Research Support, Non-U.S. Gov't
Research Support, U.S. Gov't, Non-P.H.S.

MeSH terms

Carbon Sequestration
China
Conservation of Natural Resources*
Ecosystem
Environmental Monitoring*
Lakes / chemistry
Models, Theoretical
Population Growth
Risk Assessment