Possible impacts of a future grand solar minimum on climate: Stratospheric and global circulation changes

A C Maycock; S Ineson; L J Gray; A A Scaife; J A Anstey; M Lockwood; N Butchart; S C Hardiman; D M Mitchell; S M Osprey

doi:10.1002/2014JD022022

Possible impacts of a future grand solar minimum on climate: Stratospheric and global circulation changes

J Geophys Res Atmos. 2015 Sep 27;120(18):9043-9058. doi: 10.1002/2014JD022022. Epub 2015 Sep 17.

Authors

A C Maycock¹, S Ineson², L J Gray³, A A Scaife², J A Anstey⁴, M Lockwood⁵, N Butchart², S C Hardiman², D M Mitchell⁴, S M Osprey⁶

Affiliations

¹ Centre for Atmospheric Science University of Cambridge Cambridge UK; National Centre for Atmospheric Science UK.
² Met Office Hadley Centre Met Office Exeter UK.
³ National Centre for Atmospheric Science UK; Department of Atmosphere, Ocean and Planetary Physics University of Oxford Oxford UK.
⁴ Department of Atmosphere, Ocean and Planetary Physics University of Oxford Oxford UK.
⁵ Department of Meteorology University of Reading Reading UK.
⁶ National Centre for Atmospheric Science UK.

Abstract

A future decline in solar activity would not offset projected global warmingA future decline in solar activity could have larger regional effects in winterTop-down mechanism contributes to Northern Hemisphere regional response.

Keywords: grand solar minimum; solar influences on climate; stratosphere‐troposphere coupling.