Travel Time Estimation Using Freeway Point Detector Data Based on Evolving Fuzzy Neural Inference System

PLoS One. 2016 Feb 1;11(2):e0147263. doi: 10.1371/journal.pone.0147263. eCollection 2016.

Abstract

Travel time is an important measurement used to evaluate the extent of congestion within road networks. This paper presents a new method to estimate the travel time based on an evolving fuzzy neural inference system. The input variables in the system are traffic flow data (volume, occupancy, and speed) collected from loop detectors located at points both upstream and downstream of a given link, and the output variable is the link travel time. A first order Takagi-Sugeno fuzzy rule set is used to complete the inference. For training the evolving fuzzy neural network (EFNN), two learning processes are proposed: (1) a K-means method is employed to partition input samples into different clusters, and a Gaussian fuzzy membership function is designed for each cluster to measure the membership degree of samples to the cluster centers. As the number of input samples increases, the cluster centers are modified and membership functions are also updated; (2) a weighted recursive least squares estimator is used to optimize the parameters of the linear functions in the Takagi-Sugeno type fuzzy rules. Testing datasets consisting of actual and simulated data are used to test the proposed method. Three common criteria including mean absolute error (MAE), root mean square error (RMSE), and mean absolute relative error (MARE) are utilized to evaluate the estimation performance. Estimation results demonstrate the accuracy and effectiveness of the EFNN method through comparison with existing methods including: multiple linear regression (MLR), instantaneous model (IM), linear model (LM), neural network (NN), and cumulative plots (CP).

Publication types

  • Research Support, Non-U.S. Gov't

MeSH terms

  • Algorithms
  • Cluster Analysis
  • Computer Simulation
  • Fuzzy Logic*
  • Neural Networks, Computer*
  • Regression Analysis
  • Time Factors
  • Transportation*

Grants and funding

This research was funded in part by the National Natural Science Foundation of China (grant nos. 51138003 and 51329801). This research was also funded in part by China Scholarship Council. The funders had no role in study design, data collection and analysis, decision to publish, or preparation of the manuscript.