Environmental land use conflicts in catchments: A major cause of amplified nitrate in river water

Abstract

Environmental land use conflicts are uses of the land that ignore soil capability. In this study, environmental land use conflicts were investigated in mainland Portugal, using Partial Least Squares (PLS) regression combined with GIS modeling and a group of 85 agricultural watersheds (with >50% occupation by agriculture) as work sample. The results indicate a dominance of conflicts in a region where vineyards systematically invaded steep hillsides (the River Douro basin), where forests would be the most appropriate use. As a consequence of the conflicts, nitrate concentrations in rivers and lakes from these areas have increased, sometimes beyond the legal limit of 50mg/L imposed by the European and Portuguese laws. Excessive nitrate concentrations were also observed along the Atlantic coast of continental Portugal, but associated to a combination of other factors: large population densities, and incomplete coverage by sewage systems and inadequate functioning of wastewater treatment plants. Before this study, environmental land use conflicts were never recognized as possible boost of nitrate concentrations in surface water. Bearing in mind the consequences of drinking water nitrate for human health, a number of land use change scenarios were investigated to forecast their impact on freshwater nitrate concentrations. It was seen that an aggravation of the conflicts would duplicate the number of watersheds with maximum nitrate concentrations above 50mg/L (from 11 to 20 watersheds), while the elimination of the conflicts would greatly reduce that number (to 3 watersheds).

Keywords: Agriculture; Environmental land use conflict; Human health; Nitrate; Partial Least Squares (PLS) regression; Watershed.