The global Climate change may affect biodiversity and the functioning of ecosystems by changing the appropriate locations for the development and establishment of the species. The Hancornia speciosa, popularly called Mangaba, is a plant species that has potential commercial value and contributes to rural economic activities in Brazil. The aim of this study was to evaluate the impact of global climate change on the potential geographic distribution, productivity, and value of production of H. speciosa in Brazil. We used MaxEnt to estimate the potential geographic distribution of the species in current and future (2050) climate scenarios. We obtained the productivity and value of production for 74 municipalities in Brazil. Moreover, to explain the variation the productivity and value of production, we constructed 15 models based on four variables: two ecological (ecological niche model and the presence of Unity of conservation) and two socio-economic (gross domestic product and human developed index). The models were selected using Akaike Information Criteria. Our results suggest that municipalities currently harvesting H. speciosa will have lower harvest rates in the future (mainly in northeastern Brazil). The best model to explain the productivity was ecological niche model; thus, municipalities with higher productivity are inserted in regions with higher environmental suitability (indicated by niche model). Thus, in the future, the municipalities harvesting H. speciosa will produce less because there will be less suitable habitat for H. speciosa, which in turn will affect the H. speciosa harvest and the local economy.
Keywords: Caatinga; Cerrado; Ecological niche model; Mangaba; MaxEnt.