Climate Projections and Uncertainty Communication

Abstract

Lingering skepticism about climate change might be due in part to the way climate projections are perceived by members of the public. Variability between scientists' estimates might give the impression that scientists disagree about the fact of climate change rather than about details concerning the extent or timing. Providing uncertainty estimates might clarify that the variability is due in part to quantifiable uncertainty inherent in the prediction process, thereby increasing people's trust in climate projections. This hypothesis was tested in two experiments. Results suggest that including uncertainty estimates along with climate projections leads to an increase in participants' trust in the information. Analyses explored the roles of time, place, demographic differences (e.g., age, gender, education level, political party affiliation), and initial belief in climate change. Implications are discussed in terms of the potential benefit of adding uncertainty estimates to public climate projections.

Keywords: Climate change; Decision making; Experimental psychology; Judgment; Risk perception; Uncertainty.