Statistical Analysis of a Method to Predict Drug-Polymer Miscibility

J Pharm Sci. 2016 Jan;105(1):362-7. doi: 10.1002/jps.24704. Epub 2016 Jan 13.

Abstract

In this study, a method proposed to predict drug-polymer miscibility from differential scanning calorimetry measurements was subjected to statistical analysis. The method is relatively fast and inexpensive and has gained popularity as a result of the increasing interest in the formulation of drugs as amorphous solid dispersions. However, it does not include a standard statistical assessment of the experimental uncertainty by means of a confidence interval. In addition, it applies a routine mathematical operation known as "transformation to linearity," which previously has been shown to be subject to a substantial bias. The statistical analysis performed in this present study revealed that the mathematical procedure associated with the method is not only biased, but also too uncertain to predict drug-polymer miscibility at room temperature. Consequently, the statistical inference based on the mathematical procedure is problematic and may foster uncritical and misguiding interpretations. From a statistical perspective, the drug-polymer miscibility prediction should instead be examined by deriving an objective function, which results in the unbiased, minimum variance properties of the least-square estimator as provided in this study.

MeSH terms

  • Algorithms
  • Calorimetry, Differential Scanning
  • Chemistry, Pharmaceutical
  • Felodipine / chemistry
  • Linear Models
  • Models, Theoretical
  • Pharmaceutical Preparations / chemistry*
  • Polymers / chemistry*
  • Predictive Value of Tests
  • Solubility
  • Temperature
  • Thermodynamics

Substances

  • Pharmaceutical Preparations
  • Polymers
  • Felodipine