Multiclass Classification of Agro-Ecological Zones for Arabica Coffee: An Improved Understanding of the Impacts of Climate Change

PLoS One. 2015 Oct 27;10(10):e0140490. doi: 10.1371/journal.pone.0140490. eCollection 2015.

Abstract

Cultivation of Coffea arabica is highly sensitive to and has been shown to be negatively impacted by progressive climatic changes. Previous research contributed little to support forward-looking adaptation. Agro-ecological zoning is a common tool to identify homologous environments and prioritize research. We demonstrate here a pragmatic approach to describe spatial changes in agro-climatic zones suitable for coffee under current and future climates. We defined agro-ecological zones suitable to produce arabica coffee by clustering geo-referenced coffee occurrence locations based on bio-climatic variables. We used random forest classification of climate data layers to model the spatial distribution of these agro-ecological zones. We used these zones to identify spatially explicit impact scenarios and to choose locations for the long-term evaluation of adaptation measures as climate changes. We found that in zones currently classified as hot and dry, climate change will impact arabica more than those that are better suited to it. Research in these zones should therefore focus on expanding arabica's environmental limits. Zones that currently have climates better suited for arabica will migrate upwards by about 500m in elevation. In these zones the up-slope migration will be gradual, but will likely have negative ecosystem impacts. Additionally, we identified locations that with high probability will not change their climatic characteristics and are suitable to evaluate C. arabica germplasm in the face of climate change. These locations should be used to investigate long term adaptation strategies to production systems.

Publication types

  • Research Support, Non-U.S. Gov't

MeSH terms

  • Climate Change
  • Coffea / genetics
  • Coffea / growth & development*
  • Ecology*
  • Ecosystem*
  • Humans
  • Models, Theoretical

Grants and funding

World Coffee Research funded this research through the project "Identifying Long Term Variety Trial Locations, Provide Climate Information to Support World Coffee Research Variety Trials and Support on Trial Data Analysis." http://worldcoffeeresearch.org/who-we-are/contact-us. World Coffee Research was represented by CM and TS and continuously interacted with CB and PL to design, implement and evaluate the research. CM and TS from World Coffee Research supported the manuscript preparation with comments. World Coffee Research is a 501 (c)(5) non-profit, collaborative research and development program of the global coffee industry to grow, protect, and enhance supplies of quality coffee while improving the livelihoods of the families who produce it. The program is funded and driven by the global coffee industry, guided by producers, executed by coffee scientists around the world and supported by the Norman Borlaug Institute, part of Texas A&M University.