Pedestrian fatality risk in accidents at unsignalized zebra crosswalks in Poland

Accid Anal Prev. 2015 Nov:84:83-91. doi: 10.1016/j.aap.2015.08.008. Epub 2015 Aug 31.

Abstract

Poland has the second worst pedestrian fatality rate in the European Union. In the years 2007-2012, 9101 pedestrians were killed and 71328 injured on Polish roads. Almost 30% of pedestrian injury accidents took place at unsignalized zebra crosswalks. Based on police accident database, the worst problem in terms of numbers of fatalities occurs in built-up areas, on two-way undivided roads and at mid-block locations. Especially at risk are older people - almost 73% of pedestrians killed were 55 years or older. In order to show the effect of various factors on pedestrian fatality risk, a binary logit model with interaction terms was developed. The model shows that the following factors increase the probability of pedestrian's death at unsignalized zebra crosswalks: darkness, especially with no street lighting, divided road, two-way road, non built-up area, mid-block crosswalk location and summer time period. Speed limit is a crucial factor: probability of death increases by 37% with every 10km/h rise in the speed limit. Fatality risk increases also with victim's age and is higher for male pedestrians.

Keywords: Fatality risk; Logistic regression; Pedestrian crosswalks; Pedestrian safety.

Publication types

  • Research Support, Non-U.S. Gov't

MeSH terms

  • Accidents, Traffic / mortality*
  • Accidents, Traffic / statistics & numerical data*
  • Adolescent
  • Adult
  • Aged
  • Aged, 80 and over
  • Cause of Death*
  • Child
  • Child, Preschool
  • Environment Design / statistics & numerical data*
  • Female
  • Humans
  • Infant
  • Infant, Newborn
  • Lighting*
  • Logistic Models
  • Male
  • Middle Aged
  • Pedestrians / statistics & numerical data*
  • Poland
  • Risk Factors
  • Young Adult