Techno-economic and uncertainty analysis of in situ and ex situ fast pyrolysis for biofuel production

Bioresour Technol. 2015 Nov:196:49-56. doi: 10.1016/j.biortech.2015.07.073. Epub 2015 Jul 26.

Abstract

This study evaluates the techno-economic uncertainty in cost estimates for two emerging technologies for biofuel production: in situ and ex situ catalytic pyrolysis. The probability distributions for the minimum fuel-selling price (MFSP) indicate that in situ catalytic pyrolysis has an expected MFSP of $1.11 per liter with a standard deviation of 0.29, while the ex situ catalytic pyrolysis has a similar MFSP with a smaller deviation ($1.13 per liter and 0.21 respectively). These results suggest that a biorefinery based on ex situ catalytic pyrolysis could have a lower techno-economic uncertainty than in situ pyrolysis compensating for a slightly higher MFSP cost estimate. Analysis of how each parameter affects the NPV indicates that internal rate of return, feedstock price, total project investment, electricity price, biochar yield and bio-oil yield are parameters which have substantial impact on the MFSP for both in situ and ex situ catalytic pyrolysis.

Keywords: Ex situ; In situ; Pyrolysis; Techno-economics analysis; Uncertainty analysis.

Publication types

  • Research Support, Non-U.S. Gov't
  • Research Support, U.S. Gov't, Non-P.H.S.

MeSH terms

  • Biofuels / economics*
  • Biotechnology / economics*
  • Biotechnology / methods*
  • Catalysis
  • Costs and Cost Analysis
  • Probability
  • Uncertainty*

Substances

  • Biofuels