Multicenter study on caries risk assessment in Japanese adult patients

Abstract

Objectives: This study was conducted to identify significant risk factors for the onset and the accumulation of new caries in adult patients undergoing regular preventive therapy.

Methods: The data of 732 patients from nine Japanese general dental practices were retrospectively analyzed. Classification and regression tree (CART) analysis was applied to develop a caries prediction model using the following patient parameters: age, number of teeth with caries experience (DMFT), levels of mutans streptococci (SM) and lactobacilli (LB), saliva flow rate and buffer capacity, and compliance with a preventive program. Poisson regression analysis was conducted to identify factors affecting caries accumulation within three years.

Results: CART analysis identified patients at high risk for primary caries with an odds ratio of 3.08 (95%CI, 1.55-5.79; p=0.0018) according to SM levels and compliance; and those for secondary caries with an odds ratio of 3.69 (95%CI, 2.29-5.91; p<0.0001) according to LB and SM levels. Poisson regression analyses showed that accumulation of primary caries was affected by compliance (p<0.001), SM (p<0.001) and LB (p=0.013). Accumulation of secondary caries was affected by DMFT (p<0.001), SM (p<0.001) and LB (p<0.001).

Conclusions: CART is an important tool in identifying the risk of caries development in individual adult patients. Cariogenic bacteria are important factors for both the onset and accumulation of primary and secondary caries.

Clinical significance: Participation in a regular preventive program limits the onset and the accumulation of primary caries in adult patients.

Keywords: CART; Cariogenic bacteria; Compliance with a preventive program; DMFT; Primary caries; Risk assessment; Secondary caries.