Large amounts of organic pollutants emitted from industries have accumulated and caused serious human health risks, especially in urban areas with rapid industrialization. This paper focused on the carcinogen benzo[a]pyrene (BaP) from industrial effluent and gaseous emissions, and established a multi-pathway exposure model based on a Level IV multimedia fugacity model to analyze the human health risks in a city that has undergone rapid industrialization. In this study, GIS tools combined with land-use data was introduced to analyze smaller spatial scales so as to enhance the spatial resolution of the results. An uncertainty analysis using a Monte Carlo simulation was also conducted to illustrate the rationale of the probabilistic assessment mode rather than deterministic assessment. Finally, the results of the case study in Nanjing, China indicated the annual average human cancer risk induced by local industrial emissions during 2002-2008 (lowest at 1.99x10(-6) in 2008 and highest at 3.34x10(-6) in 2004), which was lower than the USEPA prescriptive level (1x10(-6)-1x10(-4)) but cannot be neglected in the long term. The study results could not only instruct the BaP health risk management but also help future health risk prediction and control.
Keywords: Nanjing; benzo[a]pyrene; developing countries; environmental exposure; human health risk; rapid industrialization.