Nine challenges in modelling the emergence of novel pathogens

James O Lloyd-Smith; Sebastian Funk; Angela R McLean; Steven Riley; James L N Wood

doi:10.1016/j.epidem.2014.09.002

Nine challenges in modelling the emergence of novel pathogens

Epidemics. 2015 Mar:10:35-9. doi: 10.1016/j.epidem.2014.09.002. Epub 2014 Sep 19.

Authors

James O Lloyd-Smith¹, Sebastian Funk², Angela R McLean³, Steven Riley⁴, James L N Wood⁵

Affiliations

¹ Department of Ecology and Evolutionary Biology, University of California, Los Angeles, Los Angeles, CA, USA; Fogarty International Center, National Institutes of Health, Bethesda, MD, USA. Electronic address: jlloydsmith@ucla.edu.
² Center for the Mathematical Modelling of Infectious Diseases, London School of Hygiene & Tropical Medicine, London, United Kingdom.
³ Department of Zoology, Oxford Martin School, University of Oxford, Oxford, United Kingdom.
⁴ Fogarty International Center, National Institutes of Health, Bethesda, MD, USA; MRC Centre for Outbreak Analysis and Disease Modelling, Department of Infectious Disease Epidemiology, School of Public Health, Imperial College London, United Kingdom.
⁵ Fogarty International Center, National Institutes of Health, Bethesda, MD, USA; Disease Dynamics Unit, Department of Veterinary Medicine, University of Cambridge, Cambridge, United Kingdom.

Abstract

Studying the emergence of novel infectious agents involves many processes spanning host species, spatial scales, and scientific disciplines. Mathematical models play an essential role in combining insights from these investigations and drawing robust inferences from field and experimental data. We describe nine challenges in modelling the emergence of novel pathogens, emphasizing the interface between models and data.

Keywords: Cross-species spillover transmission; Emerging infectious diseases; Host jump; Infectious disease dynamics; Zoonosis.

Publication types

Research Support, N.I.H., Extramural
Research Support, Non-U.S. Gov't
Research Support, U.S. Gov't, Non-P.H.S.

MeSH terms

Animals
Communicable Diseases, Emerging / epidemiology*
Communicable Diseases, Emerging / transmission
Disease Reservoirs / statistics & numerical data
Humans
Models, Statistical
Population Surveillance
Species Specificity
Stochastic Processes
Zoonoses / epidemiology
Zoonoses / transmission

Abstract

Publication types

MeSH terms

Grants and funding