Analyzing seasonality of tuberculosis across Indian states and union territories

Pankaj Narula; Praveer Sihota; Sarita Azad; Pietro Lio

doi:10.1016/j.jegh.2015.02.004

Analyzing seasonality of tuberculosis across Indian states and union territories

J Epidemiol Glob Health. 2015 Dec;5(4):337-46. doi: 10.1016/j.jegh.2015.02.004. Epub 2015 Mar 18.

Authors

Pankaj Narula¹, Praveer Sihota¹, Sarita Azad², Pietro Lio³

Affiliations

¹ School of Basic Sciences, Indian Institute of Technology Mandi, Mandi 175001, Himachal Pradesh, India.
² School of Basic Sciences, Indian Institute of Technology Mandi, Mandi 175001, Himachal Pradesh, India. Electronic address: sarita@iitmandi.ac.in.
³ Computer Laboratory, William Gates Building 15, JJ Thomson Avenue, Cambridge CB3 0FD, University of Cambridge, UK.

Abstract

A significant seasonal variation in tuberculosis (TB) is observed in north India during 2006-2011, particularly in states like Himachal Pradesh, Haryana and Rajasthan. To quantify the seasonal variation, we measure average amplitude (peak to trough distance) across seasons in smear positive cases of TB and observe that it is maximum for Himachal Pradesh (40.01%) and minimum for Maharashtra (3.87%). In north India, smear positive cases peak in second quarter (April-June) and reach a trough in fourth quarter (October-December), however low seasonal variation is observed in southern region of the country. The significant correlations as 0.64 (p-value<0.001), 0.54 (p-value<0.01) and 0.42 (p-value<0.05) are observed between minimum temperature and seasonality of TB at lag-1 in north, central and northeast India respectively. However, in south India, this correlation is not significant.

Keywords: Poisson regression; Seasonality; Smear positive cases; Temperature; Tuberculosis.

Publication types

Research Support, Non-U.S. Gov't

MeSH terms

Humans
India / epidemiology
Poisson Distribution
Regression Analysis
Seasons*
Tuberculosis / epidemiology*