Solar electricity supply isolines of generation capacity and storage

Proc Natl Acad Sci U S A. 2015 Mar 24;112(12):3663-8. doi: 10.1073/pnas.1316781112. Epub 2015 Mar 9.

Abstract

The recent sharp drop in the cost of photovoltaic (PV) electricity generation accompanied by globally rapidly increasing investment in PV plants calls for new planning and management tools for large-scale distributed solar networks. Of major importance are methods to overcome intermittency of solar electricity, i.e., to provide dispatchable electricity at minimal costs. We find that pairs of electricity generation capacity G and storage S that give dispatchable electricity and are minimal with respect to S for a given G exhibit a smooth relationship of mutual substitutability between G and S. These isolines between G and S support the solving of several tasks, including the optimal sizing of generation capacity and storage, optimal siting of solar parks, optimal connections of solar parks across time zones for minimizing intermittency, and management of storage in situations of far below average insolation to provide dispatchable electricity. G-S isolines allow determining the cost-optimal pair (G,S) as a function of the cost ratio of G and S. G-S isolines provide a method for evaluating the effect of geographic spread and time zone coverage on costs of solar electricity.

Keywords: US super grid; dispatchable solar electricity; large-scale solar network; photovoltaics; solar intermittency.